A week is a long time in a coronavirus pandemic – a fact the government has learned all too painfully. Avoiding a one-week delay to lockdown in March would potentially have halved the death toll, it has previously emerged.
Which goes some way to explain why there have been not one but two screeching U-turns this week – on travel to Spain and lockdown measures for 4.6 million people in northern England – both announced late into the evening and imposed within hours. The ensuing chaos and anger have been palpable, and all point to one thing: that the government is very, very worried about a resurgence of the virus on UK soil.
It began at 4.30pm last Saturday afternoon with a video meeting of the cabinet’s Covid-O – or coronavirus operations – committee. There were ministers from six different departments, plus Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, ministers from the Scottish and Welsh administrations and key officials.
The mood was a sombre. Chaired by Matt Hancock, the health secretary, the issue at hand was what to do about Spain, Britain’s favourite summer holiday destination, to which 1.8 million people planned to fly in August. Should it remain one of the countries with which the UK has an “air bridge”, with no need to isolate for 14 days on their return, or did it need to now be classed as unsafe?
Whitty was unequivocal. The number of new infections in Spain had risen 75% over the previous 48 hours and were up in 15 of Spain’s 19 regions. More importantly, 10 Britons who had tested positive for coronavirus since 1 July had been in Spain in the two weeks before their test.
Hancock told the meeting that while Spain had instigated regional lockdowns in the worst affected areas, many nightclubs were still open, unlike in Britain. A third of the 281 active outbreaks in Spain had been linked to social gatherings, including nightclubs.
The idea of U-turning on a recent green light for Spain’s air bridge involved obvious embarrassment for ministers and anguish for holidaymakers. But the nightmare scenario of those 10 cases being followed by hundreds more as the summer unfolded impelled those present to act, and act now.
The drawbridge to Spain was pulled up, with the change announced at 7.30pm, hours before it took effect. Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, had enough insider knowledge not to have started his planned holiday to the country – but he feared a backlash if he avoided the pain experienced by other UK tourists, so he flew out to Spain only to return, purple suitcase in hand, a couple of days later.
On Tuesday, Jet2 accused the government of giving information that was “contradictory and often comes with little or no notice”. Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s prime minister, branded the U-turn “unjust”.
For the first time, and echoing a front-page warning in the Guardian that day, Boris Johnson said there were signs of a second wave of the pandemic in Europe. The next day Luxembourg was added to the unsafe list; cases in Belgium were being watched closely.
The growing caution was underlined when, on Wednesday, a series of medical experts addressing the all-party parliamentary group on coronavirus laid bare their concerns over a second spike.
Niall Dickson, chief executive of the NHS Confederation, warned that concern among hospital bosses and GPs was running very high. “There’s real concern about winter and the compounding factors there, but also about an earlier spike,” he said. Scientists recently said that in a worst-case scenario, winter and beyond could see a combination of normal respiratory illness and resurgent Covid-19 leave 120,000 people dead.
Jose Vazquez-Boland, chair of infectious diseases at the University of Edinburgh, said mounting evidence showed that, after months in which both transmission and infection rates in the UK had fallen, “what we are facing is a comeback of community transmission after removing the lockdown measures”, adding: “There will be a resurgence of new cases every time social restriction measures are lifted as long as the virus remains in circulation.”
Thursday saw more painful news for the government – official confirmation from the Office for National Statistics that England had the worst excess death toll in Europe in the first half of the year. Then came two changes in tactics.
That morning, on the advice of the four home nations’ chief medical officers, the length of time anyone who shows symptoms had to isolate rose from seven to 10 days. “It was a clinically led decision; ministers weren’t involved. The CMOs said: ‘We have to do this and do this quickly,’” explained a Whitehall source.
The afternoon brought a meeting of the Gold committee of key government and public health officials, which Hancock again chaired. Again there was dispiriting news.
Evidence from Public Health England and the Joint Biosecurity Centre showed a worrying rise in infections in north-west England. This time, locally imposed guidance would not be enough – the force of the law was needed.
Shortly before 5pm, Hancock called the Greater Manchester mayor, Andy Burnham, to alert him that a ban would be imposed on individuals from any household in Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire or east Lancashire from meeting up with people from another household indoors. The profound impact of this was clear: it was the eve of Eid, and many of the areas subject to the ban have large Muslim populations.
At this point, Burnham was grateful for the communication from central government but that gratitude would not last. It was another four hours before Hancock announced the change – in a tweet and video clip after 9pm, with the measures to be imposed at midnight.
One West Yorkshire local authority chief executive was still trying to get the final details from Whitehall officials on the new rules for the region when the changes started to be unveiled on Sky News.
Confusion reigned about what the new rules would mean, amid rumours that all pubs and restaurants in the region were to be shut. The Department of Health and Social Care finally issued an explanatory note to the media at 11.19pm.
“Our frustrations came later on in the evening if I’m honest,” Burnham said. “I think with hindsight there is much more that should have been done to inform the public properly.” As recriminations surged on Friday, Johnson hastily arranged the Downing Street press conference that some said should have been used to announce the northern England measures in the first place.
Amid new figures showing nearly 5,000 new infections a day, this time action would be England-wide: a swathe of openings planned for 1 August would be shelved, including casinos and bowling alleys, and pilot sports events would be postponed for at least two weeks, he announced.
“We have to act rapidly in order to protect those we love. With those numbers creeping up, our assessment is that we should now squeeze that brake pedal in order to keep the virus under control.”
One official said ministers were right to act at speed, despite allegations that the gradual rise in cases could have led to smoother communications. “Given how quickly the virus can transmit, it doesn’t do to wait.”
Others took a different view. Johnson had sought to give the impression of a government taking decisive action after carefully weighing up new evidence. But soon after his press conference ended, another official, reflecting on events of the week, said simply: “It’s a shitshow.”
Additional reporting: Pamela Duncan and Severin Carrell