People in England could be allowed to socialise in bigger groups outside in gardens or parks in the coming weeks, a cabinet minister has confirmed, but visiting friends and family indoors still appears to be some way off.
There is mounting pressure on the government to make clear its plans for easing restrictions on social contact, after Boris Johnson announced outdoor markets and car showrooms could open from next week and non-essential retail outlets from 15 June.
Speaking to broadcast media, Michael Gove, a Cabinet Office minister, acknowledged the restrictions on seeing family and friends were “tough” and suggested restrictions on seeing only one person from another household out of doors could soon be eased.
He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “You can see members of your family or friends out of doors, and we are looking at seeing how we can make it easier to see, in particular, more family members out of doors in a safe way.”
However, he gave no hint when indoor visits to family and friends may be allowed again.
The possibility of more outdoor meetings – discussed at cabinet – could pave the way for barbecues, garden parties and other forms of socialising, although it is likely the social distancing rules would still apply.
R, or the ‘effective reproduction number’, is a way of rating a disease’s ability to spread. It’s the average number of people on to whom one infected person will pass the virus. For an R of anything above 1, an epidemic will grow exponentially. Anything below 1 and an outbreak will fizzle out – eventually.
At the start of the coronavirus pandemic, the estimated R for coronavirus was between 2 and 3 – higher than the value for seasonal flu, but lower than for measles. That means each person would pass it on to between two and three people on average, before either recovering or dying, and each of those people would pass it on to a further two to three others, causing the total number of cases to snowball over time.
The reproduction number is not fixed, though. It depends on the biology of the virus; people’s behaviour, such as social distancing; and a population’s immunity. A country may see regional variations in its R number, depending on local factors like population density and transport patterns.
Hannah Devlin Science correspondent
The government’s plan for easing the lockdown in England, published earlier this month, included a promise to look at the idea of “social bubbles”, whereby households could mingle with one other household.
It said: “The intention of this change would be to allow those who are isolated some more social contact, and to reduce the most harmful effects of the current social restrictions, while continuing to limit the risk of chains of transmission.”
However, the prime minister gave no update about this on Sunday or Monday when he spoke at the daily press conference, while Gove talked only about bigger outdoor meetings being allowed “in the coming weeks”.
Gove also suggested it would be some time before pubs, restaurants, cafes and bars would be returned to normal.
“It’s going to be more difficult with pubs, restaurants and bars in full,” Gove told LBC Radio. “What I hope we may be able to see is people being able to have outdoor hospitality, so that you can enjoy a drink in the garden of a pub or eat outdoors in a cafe.
“I think it’s going to be very, very difficult for us to return to any of us standing at the bar or any of us mingling in a cafe indoors in a way that we have in the past.”