Anglo-Scottish relations are heading for an almighty crash and Boris Johnson cannot look the other way. By the time he has finished in office, it is perfectly possible that Scotland will have gone the way of Ireland in 1922 and Northern Ireland will have voted itself back into the Dublin fold. The United Kingdom would be no more and it would emphatically be Johnson’s fault – because the trigger would have been Brexit.
Johnson must hope that, as before whenever England has been at odds with Scotland, Scotland self-destructs. Ever since the union of 1707, Scotland’s fiercest enemy has been internal faction. So this week Alex Salmond has reportedly threatened to reveal all in his feud with his fellow separatist Nicola Sturgeon over who said what, to whom and when in Salmond’s sexual harassment case. The internal strife seems to crescendo at the very moment when Scottish independence is visible on the horizon.
Sturgeon’s approval ratings are near unassailable. Last week they were +21 against Salmond’s -60 – and Johnson’s -54. Though she may have to throw herself on her party’s mercy, her figures push argument into the shade. Even were Sturgeon to go, Sturgeonism would live on. At this point in all independence struggles, economics and practicalities vanish beneath rhetoric. Nothing can satisfy the separatist hunger but separation, the reduction to necessity of identity politics.
The nationalist bug is now embedded in the UK. Unionism has long been Toryism’s imperial hangover, its achilles heel, much as it has been a glue for Labour’s big statism. The union might have survived had London in the 20th century pursued a policy of devolved home rule for Ireland and Scotland. As it was, the United Kingdom was effectively reduced to Great Britain with Ireland’s secession in 1922. Devolution should have been a sensible halfway house, but it came too late and was always begrudged. It yielded only economic dependency and a growing sense of grievance.
Even in England only 46% of people want Scotland to stay. Reunion with Ireland is teetering on the edge of popularity in Northern Ireland and nationalists are even winning support in Wales. If, as seems certain, this May’s elections deliver a thumping victory for the SNP in Scotland, London must have a sympathetic answer ready, or it will face a Catalan crisis. Independence for Scotland might indeed be a terrible mess. But then so is Brexit. Perhaps this time we should be better prepared.